UK Cost Predictions - Fall 2022

I have just started looking at the cost of a one-way ticket back from the UK to the US at the end of October-beginning of November and am shocked at the prices, even on the traditionally lowest priced days, Tues, Wed and Sat. I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise considering the looming energy crisis.

Have any of you seasoned travelers heard any recent predictions about flight costs? It is better to buy now rather than later? Have you found it cheaper to fly out of Heathrow (to DC) rather than Manchester or some other UK location? Any tips, info or travel chat would be appreciated.

I am also wondering what will happen here as the days grow colder. I guess I better get some down long underwear.

We haven’t been to the US for years, but Iceland Air used to be the cheapest according to other travelers. You can also stopover in Iceland and do the Golden circle etc. (there are usually cheap package deals for that). We would recommend looking at several websites like Skyscanner and Kiwi and to use a VPN and see if you get a different price from a different location. The more you look from your real IP address the pricier it usually gets.

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Hi @mars I’ll just make some generalizations, as I don’t have any specific details:

  • Sometimes flying into Canada (Toronto) and then to the US can be more cost-effective. Pre-pandemic when I did an organized tour to Europe with a US company they flew all their northern US travellers to Toronto first. I realize Toronto has an exceptionally bad reputation right now, but hopefully that’s forcing them to improve.

  • If you have the time to travel, perhaps consider a repositioning cruise as ships are often moving from the Mediterranean to the Caribbean around that time. If you are a solo traveller, I’m not sure how cost-effective it would be but it might be worth checking out.

  • In response to @Timmy’s comment, my understanding is that the search engine duckduckgo blocks tracking, so that may help with your searching efforts for flights. As much as I’ve used it, I don’t have hard facts to prove it is effective.

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Yes, the cost has significantly increased. We booked flights for middle of October back to the UK about a month ago. Shocked. We took the decision to fly with main line carriers because of the luggage fiasco at London airports and there is less chance of the flight being cancelled.
I don’t know what the answer is but very interested in others solutions

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We paid more for our flights from Canada to London this year via Westjet but it wasn’t a huge difference. The further in advance you fly, the cheaper it is, at least with Westjet. They fly to London, Glasgow, Paris, Dublin, and Rome, but not all winter so I’m not sure what the cut off is. And then depending on where you’re going in the US, you would need to fly to that location from a major centre in Canada.

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have you looked at google flights, seeing $275 one way to Newark, but a day layover in Portugal. Check out Scotts Cheap Flights, membership is cheap and you get notified of airfare deals via email.

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I discovered something I didn’t know earlier this year on our trip to Mexico. That some places subsidize the flights (or that’s what we were told) Cancun being one of them. Our flights direct with British Airways return from Gatwick were just over £400. We’ve already booked same flights next year, again with BA, and they are £387 return - direct flights. Maybe flying into Mexico and then get a cheap Mexican flight into the US or Canada could be an option?

I just searched to see if there is truth in this, and found this article which is interesting but on a slightly different subject regarding Cancun as a hub choice:

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I am an American living in Europe for the past 20 years.

If you can manage BWI, for one ways check out https://www.flyplay.com/ it appears that Washington will be a destination in the spring. They are a newer, low-cost airline stopping over in Iceland. I haven’t tried them yet myself but the price looks good if you can deal with the ‘low cost’ concept of no in-flight movies, etc. I have done Iceland stopovers on the way to the US on other carriers and it’s usually an easy, manageable transfer.

They fly out of Stansted (which they call ‘London Stansted’ but it’s well outside of London). It’s a very busy airport with a lot of low cost flights so give yourself the full 3 hours to check in and get to where you need to go.

@Peg mentions via Portugal to Newark (TAP Air Portugal), I flew that route last year into peak December holidays in the States. I didn’t find it so much on one-ways but for anyone who needs a return and can do Newark to London Heathrow or Gatwick, the stopover piece in Lisbon lowers the price. I did 3 nights in Lisbon.

Top tip, if the TAP website gets stuck trying to book, use the TAP website to work out the pricing and then book on Expedia, you can usually find the same route. If you book via Expedia then you can book the luggage piece separately via TAP prior to check-in opening, otherwise the luggage price goes up on check-in or even more at the airport.

TAP is an ok airline to fly, I’d put it in a similar category to United.

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Hya,
Use Google Flights to get an idea of the range of prices one way on different days. You do not need to select a destination. Just your departure city and a date. You will get a range of places and rates that will shift as you zoom in and out. Do it several times on different dates, write down or save your results in the manner of your choosing as you are doing comparisons. Your goal is to cross the Atlantic and the way is never a straight path :wink: unless of course you want to pay that higher rate.
In my example, I picked 26th October London to anywhere. Montreal comes in very low and then from there you can get another flight to Baltimore. The lowest quotes are always going to be the no frills flights with no baggage so keep that in mind.
Once you land on the other side of the pond, you can also look to traveling by train or by bus. Something to also keep in mind if you can manage the time, you can try traveling like a nomad :slight_smile: hop and sit your way home from Canada and enjoy the journey.
As others have mentioned, flights out of Portugal are also low end and a flight to Portugal from London is less than a night out in Baltimore. Didn’t look into Mexico.


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It will not be that cold unless you are in North Wales or Scotland.
You will be fine young lady.
You will figure it out.
all the best

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That’s where I’ll be – Scotland!

Thanks to all for the great suggestions. I haven’t made any decisions yet, but I am considering @Timmy 's suggestion of going to Reykjavik for, maybe, three days, touring the Golden Circle, and from there flying Icelandair to DC. It’s a much better deal than going from London to DC. Trying @Snowbird 's suggestion of using DuckDuckGo. Will also do a Google search as you suggest, @Amparo . @Peg , I also checked out Scott’s Cheap Flights. Thanks.

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That sounds like a worthy ideal. have fun and send pics!

@Amparo I have said this before, you need to do a VLOG for all your fantastic travel tips! “Amparo’s Adventures”. You are teaching me so much via the forum. Thank you.

Question: I just tried doing the search, how do you get the map to show per your example?

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Ok @Crookie Ask and it is given.
Haven’t made a video in a while and this is raw uncut, unedited first in probably 5 years lol

As well as Google Flights have a look as Skyscanner. They each do a few things better and worse than the other. I would never (normally) book through either and go direct to the airline or TA for that.

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It’s useful to understand how airline ticketing works when comparing prices. There are always various price levels on airline tickets. Airline Yield Management systems are highly sophisticated and balance price against bookings. There are always cheap seats through to dear seats so if there is early demand the cheaper seats will be gone and it will be dearer for everyone else.
Always look around for different times of day as well as for the ‘traditionally’ cheaper days.

Agree. I don’t think I have ever actually booked a flight on Google flights, I only use it as tool to see the rate trends. I normally book direct with the airlines and make sure I get points, miles etc.

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Hi @mars, so many great replies to your question. High-fives to responders who suggested Google Flights.

I have just started looking at the cost of a one-way ticket back from the UK to the US at the end of October-beginning of November…

From reading your response, sounds like DC is the destination. I have some screenshots of both. And it appears that Google is showing a US235 one-way in Oct and Nov, for that one targeted flight. But the IcelandAir flight to Reykjavík could be quite a lot of fun too.



It is better to buy now rather than later?

According to Scott Keyes from ScottsCheapFlights.com’s book “Take More Vacations: How to Search Better, Book Cheaper, and Travel the World”, he shares that for domestic flights, the Goldilocks window is usually between one and three months ahead of your travel dates. For international flights, it’s between two and eight months ahead of time.

So in your situation, booking now is a good time for your international flight.

Have you found it cheaper to fly out of Heathrow (to DC) rather than Manchester or some other UK location?

In Google Flights, you can input up to 7 departing airports. In your case, you could choose “London” and let Google figure out the options for you.

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@ShermanHu , thank you for the great information.

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You’re very welcome, @mars !

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You can’t actually book with google flights - but you may be able to follow the direct link from google flights to other ticketing sites, including the airlines themselves. If it works, the flights you select will be passed to the airlines.
You might also try matrix.itasoftware.com - matrix is the search engine that underlies google flights and you can add some search codes - not too complex and the help screens on matrix will guide you.

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